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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Recent History

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this challenge is different. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They started slowly, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.